How to value a Sorare card
Trying to answer the most difficult question for the first publication of Sorare Intelligence
Hi, I’m @tecomah in Sorare and passionate about data analysis. I’ve decided to launch the Sorare Intelligence newsletter where I’ll share my insights.
For our first publication, I try to provide an analytical framework to answer one of the most complex questions: how to value a Sorare card?
Trading is a key success factor in Sorare and one of the most exciting parts of the game. I hope it will help you improve your decision-making.
If you have not played Sorare yet,
We can isolate three underlying elements:
The S05 value represents immediate profits the card will bring you in the fantasy game.
The speculative value represents bets on long-term profits the card will bring you in the fantasy game.
The collectible value, which can be isolated from the fantasy game.
I) The S05 Value
Cards with a high S05 value will perform better in the fantasy game and bring you rewards.
Sorare cards can have 4 scarcities: Limited (1/1000), Rare (1/100), Super Rare (1/10), Unique (1/1).
The best divisions are restricted to the scarcest cards. They offer the best rewards.
The scarcest cards bring you more points thanks to the multiplying factor, which increases the probability to get a reward.
Price ratios between the different scarcities are important to keep in mind in order to avoid big mistakes.
Please note that we compute ratios based on Ξ, that’s another discussion we will address in a future publication.
Scoring = Score * Bonus
A player scores a score between 0 and 100. The scoring matrix follows a standard normal distribution.
L15 is the average scoring of a player over his last 15 games:
70% of players have an L15 below 50, 20% between 50 and 56, and 10% above 56. The top 1% have an L15 above 65.
The median price of a 50 L15 rare card is 0.07Ξ, 0.18Ξ for a 60 L15, 0.41Ξ for a 70 L15. Interesting to see how exponential is the function (the chart below is based on a logarithmic scale).
Is the price more sensitive to L5, L15, or L40? That would be the topic of another publication.
You need to select 5 players to build a team: one goalkeeper, one defender, one midfielder, one forward, and another field player of your choice. This does not follow the distribution of positions in football.
Consequence: goalkeepers and forwards are more expensive than defenders and midfielders.
Calendar / Seasonality
Club calendar can have a significant impact on a player’s price. Let’s take the example of Jesus Murillo between August 2021 and September 2021.
Phase 1: the price of Jesus Murillo is quite stable, the Major League Season (MLS) is halfway.
Phase 2: The Special Weekly rules for Aug 27 - Aug 31 is: Los Angeles derby player only. 100 rewards can be won while there’s a very limited number of cards available. There’s a buying pressure on this player: its rare price goes from 0.04Ξ to 0.06Ξ.
Phase 3: The special weekly ends, the end of the MLS season is coming closer and European Leagues are live: there’s selling pressure. The price of Jesus Murillo goes from 0.06Ξ to 0.02Ξ.
Player availability in the short term is a major price determinant. Serious injuries can make a card price collapse.
On August 14th, Mason Toye suffered a serious injury and will miss “several months”. Immediately its price goes from 0.1Ξ to 0.03Ξ and then slowly increases with time.
II) The Speculative Value
There’s speculative value if a player is believed to increase significantly its scoring in the long run.
One of the well-known passive strategies in Sorare is to buy very young players and expect them to become good scorers in a few years.
Young players (U23) have a high speculative value while veterans (>33) do not have any. This creates price discrepancies up to 4x for equal scoring.
A transfer of a player can have a brutal impact on its S05 value. Price movements happen earlier, as soon as the first rumors are public.
Mile Svilar evolves in the reserve on Benfica: he has no S05 value. Because he’s a young goalkeeper, he does have a high speculative value, which explains its high price.
On August 31st, the last day of the transfer window, Mile Svilar was rumoured to be loaned out from Benfica to Gil Vicente, where he would become a starter.
More than 10 cards were sold in a few hours, with a price going from 0.13Ξ to 0.26Ξ. Finally, the deal never happened, and Svilar’s price went back to 0.13Ξ.
Despite an average scoring, players evolving in the best clubs have a higher price. N’Golo Kanté is one of the best midfielders in the world, but this is not reflected in Sorare's current scoring system.
Kanté only has an average scoring of 49, 30% of players having a better scoring. However, its average rare price is 0.42Ξ, which is the usual price for a player that has a 65+ L15.
III) The collectible value
The urge to collect unusual and fascinating objects is primeval and particularly pronounced in the crypto culture.
For many reasons (and I won’t be able to list them all), some specific Sorare cards have a higher value.
Some managers give importance to the serial number, while it does not have any impact on the S05 value.
Cards labeled 1/x have a higher value as they were the first minted of the season for a given player. The more minted cards there will be, the higher will be the price discrepancy between the 1/x and the other ones.
# of Mints
Some players had very few mints for different reasons. That’s the case for West Ham players, that were only edited for the 2019-2020 season.
Thomas Soucek is a regular starter for West Ham with a pretty good scoring (54 L40). Still, its value keeps increasing and sellers ask a very high price for him. Comparable players should have a price of 0.2Ξ, but Soucek is at sale for 0.85Ξ.
For special occasions, special editions. These cards have a design, a limited number of mints but keep the same S05 value.
Some examples are the Champion Editions or the recent GW#200 Editions that were rewarded a few days ago.
We can observe price discrepancies up to 5x between regular editions and special editions.
There’s an infinite number of elements to be taken into account when buying a card. I tried to list the most important ones but I’m sure you’ll think about other ones too. Feel free to add your comments there.
An infinite thanks to Sorare Data for making this data available and helping Sorare managers make smarter decisions.